Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 192323
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015
CLOSED LOW NORTH OF WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH INTO OKLAHOMA. STRONG
WAVE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
LIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST WITH CLOSED LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST. RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
REGION. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT...STRATOCUMULUS HAS BECOME
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE SOME TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 5 MPH OR HIGHER AT MOST
PLACES. DESPITE THE WIND REMAINING UP A BIT...A COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. RIVER VALLEYS AND TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.

STILL BREEZY MONDAY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING AS
THE DAY GOES ON...SO NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. STILL GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
APPEAR LIKELY FROM NOON THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
AN AINSWORTH TO BROKEN BOW LINE. ALSO...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL THE WILDFIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN IN CHECK. THE ONLY AREAS THAT DIDN/T RECEIVE AN
INCH OR MORE RAIN...ABOUT A HALF INCH...WAS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.
STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH 250MB JET ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. MAINLY ZONAL SOUTHERN
STREAM JET WILL DRAW CLOSED LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THURSDAY AND AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
AS AN OPEN WAVE. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES RETAINED FOR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES IN FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

WIND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 320-350 AT
12-16G22-24KT BY 02Z AND EVEN FURTHER TO 10-12G18-20KT BY 04Z. THE
WIND WILL STAY UP ABOVE 7KT THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO FOG IS UNLIKELY
EVEN THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN OF THE LAST THREE DAYS
HAS INCREASED THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET AGL. WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING TO 12-16G19-23KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






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