Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232021
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.

MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MORNING STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AND ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MID
AFTERNOON. NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE..AND DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WILL MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TSRA AMENDMENTS
MADE TO THE TAF IF NECESSARY.

STRATUS CLOUDS AND LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF. FURTHER NORTH...NEAR KVTN...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH THE POTENTIAL LOW CIGS FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED BKN030 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AT KVTN...HOWEVER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN













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