Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231116
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
616 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO
LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BLENDED MICRO-WAVE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED 25MM INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 16-20MM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E
RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG
SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. THE SCENARIO THAT THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE CREATING INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LEAD WAVE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TO
SOME DEGREE STRENGTH. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EVENT...AND WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECENT INTO THE
AREA...LIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW /H500MB TEMPS NEAR -23C/ PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THAT REGION AS THIS OCCURS. TONIGHT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY AS THE LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL RESIDE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE QUICKLY...AND SO DO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MEAN IS A BIT NORTH WITH THE
CLOSED SYSTEM...MORE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. IT ALSO INDICATES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR
ANY NORTHWARD TREND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD DRY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH
CEILINGS OF 1000-2000 FEET AGL. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST BUT 3-6
HOURS BEFORE THEY SCATTER OUT. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING. HOWEVER...
WITH 20-40 PERCENT COVERAGE...THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
ANY ONE SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN A TERMINAL FORECAST.

SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...
BECOMING 150-180 AT 12-16G24-28KT AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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