Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 181959
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 19Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN WESTERN
KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED IN EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE CENTER OF STRONG CUT OFF LOW /H500 MB TEMP -25C/ IS NEAR AKRON
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS INSIST THAT
CONVECTION...AIDED BY A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY ROTATING NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND THE LOW CENTER...WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REST OF WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...GOOD SURFACE HEATING UNDERWAY ATTM
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. EXPECTING MUCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE
WEAKNESS ARE THE WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND NOT A A LOT OF
VEERING WITH HEIGHT. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WILL SEE SOME VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND SOME HAIL LIKELY
WITH THOSE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NOT ZERO...BUT
AGAIN WITH THE WEAK WIND FIELDS AND LIMITED VEERING...NOT EXPECTING
THAT TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK. IF A TORNADO OCCURS IT WOULD MORE THAN
LIKELY BE WEAK. K INDICES ARE HIGH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE CLOSED H500 MB CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO MIGRATE INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE EAST ACROSS KANSAS
DURING THE DAY. A SMALL DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
CENTER IS UNCERTAIN...AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE MASS
FIELD AND EXPECT THE FINAL TRACK COULD END UP A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH. THIS IS HINTED IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MODEL. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
CRASH THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM RANGE...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL LIFT OUT AND COLLIDE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FORMING A VERY LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW. UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE SHARPLY
ACROSS NRN CANADA SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
CIRCULATE COOL AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS KEEPS
THE FORECAST AREA IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. DAYTIME MIXING PRODUCES
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY PLACING A LIMIT ON HEATING.

MONDAY WOULD BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTN WHICH WEAKEN AT SUNSET. WINDS STAY REASONABLY
STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO. THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WOULD BE FOR
LOWS MONDAY MORNING FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA BUT ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. LOWS FALL BELOW
FREEZING EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT ALONG HIGHWAY 281. HIGHS
RISE INTO THE 50S MONDAY AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST IS DRY AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEW POINTS FALL INTO
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RISK TO THE FORECAST
IS THAT THE VERY DRY AIR COULD SUPPORT COLDER LOWS THAN FORECAST BUT
THAT WOULD COMPETE DIRECTLY WITH THE WARM WET GROUND FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

EXTENDED RANGE...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

A RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND NORTHERN ALBERTA OPENING UP A PATH FROM
NUNAVUT IN EXTREME NORTHERN CANADA TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND
THE NIOBRARA VALLEY WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND  SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES...A TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE KLBF TAF SITE. LATE
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA...THIS WILL BRING MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS WITH IT FROM
AROUND 07Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
MEDIUM RANGE...CDC
EXTENDED RANGE...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TAYLOR





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