Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 050830
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ANOTHER DAY AND ANOTHER SLOW DOWN IN THE MODELS. STATIONARY BOUNDARY
HAS MADE A LITTLE PROGRESS NORTH THIS MORNING. CLOSEST LIGHTNING IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE NEXT WAVE. HAVE GONE WITH OCCASIONAL
-DZ THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1
TO 3 MILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL GO WITH A PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS FRONT MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND. CLOSEST ECHOES A COUNTY DEEP IN KANSAS. HAVE CHANGED OVER TO
SHOWERS AT 12Z AND THEN EXPAND INTO SANDHILLS THROUGH THE MORNING.
BIG PUSH OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AS SEEN IN WV BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. EXPECT ECHOES
TO TRAIN STRAIGHT NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DEFINITE POPS AND BEST QPF IN THIS AREA. BEST
LIFT IN THIS AREA AROUND 21Z AND THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH DRY SLOT MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. POPS INDICATE THIS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S EAST.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THE PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A LEAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF
LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE. A MORE ROBUST PV MAX EJECTS NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE RELOADS WITH ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AROUND 1 INCH. LARGE SCALE FORCING A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE EROSION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS LOW STRATUS LOCKED IN PLACE WITH CLEARING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WOULD MEAN SURFACE BASED
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN KS WOULD LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY PUSHED NORTHWARD
INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA...THUS LIMITING THEIR
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH COVERAGE ENHANCED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SAME TIME A PACIFIC FRONT WITH DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA...AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS IT TRACKS EAST. ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED...SO BUMPED
LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN RESUMES BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTH WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED COOLER FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE GFS AND EC BOTH ADVERTISE H85 TEMPS NEAR 0C OR
COLDER...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
STILL WAY TOO LOW TO CONSIDER MENTIONING MID-MAY SNOWFLAKES IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE SREF MODEL INDICATES IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS SCNTL NEB WILL LIKELY
TO SPREAD WEST OVERNIGHT AND LIFT TO MVFR/LOCAL IFR BY NOON
TUESDAY. BY THEN THESE LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
PANHANDLE.

A FRESH ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ABOUT
EVERY 6 TO 8 HOURS AND PROGRESSIVELY ADVANCE FARTHER NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COULD BE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS NM/WEST TX LIFTS INTO WRN/NCNTL NEB.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC















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