Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 261810
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
110 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM A
LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TO A LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE
WAS ALSO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ALL THREE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAD UPPER SUPPORT INDICATED IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE WYOMING AND SASKATCHEWAN LOWS HAD MATURING VORTICES
WHILE THE COLORADO LOW HAD A POTENTIAL VORTICITY INTRUSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE.
WITH LIFTED INDICES AT OR ABOVE 4C...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY THUNDER
WILL DEVELOP. THE UPWARD MOTION WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO
WEAK...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE DETERMINISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POSSIBLE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FAR WEST EARLY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER
AND A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS EAST ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE PATTERN
HOWEVER TRANSITIONS BY MID-WEEK AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.  THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A WIDESPREAD WARMUP AND FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.  LATE IN THE
EXTENDED...THERE IS SUPPORT FROM THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS THAT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  THUS...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BEYOND 12Z MONDAY...BUT ARE NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTED.  WE WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION MONDAY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC UPSLOPE GENERATED QPF WHICH POSSIBLY MAY BE
ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.  BUT AT
THIS POINT THE BETTER OMEGA IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO IF PRECIPITATION IS REALIZED...IT WOULD BE
LIGHT.  THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS POSSIBLY
SPREADING QPF INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE
ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER RIDGE AND A RESULTANT LACK OF OMEGA WILL PROMOTE DRY AND
WARMING CONDITIONS.  HIGHS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE MODELS CAME IN STRONGER/QUICKER WITH A PROPOSED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS SHOWN TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SOME RETURN
OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE GFS INDICATING LATE AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT TSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  THE EC IS LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERALLY IS PREFERRED AT THIS POINT.  BOTH INDICATE
THE GREATER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING CHANCES OF STORMS BACK TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER AS WITH THE POTENTIAL THURS-FRI
SYSTEM...THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ATTM.

FOR THOSE CONCERNED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO
YOUNG COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE N/S PLATTE RIVER AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING.  ATTM...THE
CONSENSUS KEEPS MINIMUM READINGS JUST ABOVE 0C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALLOWED LOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO PERSIST
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER SOME DRY AIR IS ARRIVING
FROM THE A SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THE CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MODELS
DUE BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...HOWEVER
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINANT. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK






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