Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 162029
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION..JACOBS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.