Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 021202 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SINCE IT
IS SO LOCALIZED HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AND WILL COVER WITH
NOWCASTS. UPDATED WEATHER...WINDS AND SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MODELS HAVE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE NEAR TERM AND HAVE
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FIRST CONCERN IS WHETHER TO INCLUDE
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY, STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AROUND 20KTS AND THIS SHOULD HAVE MOST ACTIVITY CLEARING FORECAST
AREA BY 1230Z. WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE. STILL 59F AT 1 AM CDT AT KLBF. CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING
AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 50F OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY WARM
START TO THE DAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING OVER NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND EXPANDING EAST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY. HEATING OF THE DAY TD`S IN THE LOW 50S AND WEAK FORCING IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SOME MARGINAL MUCAPE WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS AND THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK
LLJ WILL DEVELOP TO THE THE SOUTHWEST AND CARRY AND ENHANCE TRW AS
THEY MOVE EAST. LLJ NOT AS STRONG 20 TO 25 KTS. DYNAMICS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH 6Z AND HAVE ENDED CHANCES AFTER THEN. LOWS AGAIN
AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FILLED WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRONG
LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST...AND A WEAKER LOW TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THE SPLIT FLOW PHASES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OPEN UP THE GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEAN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY...STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS RICHER THETA-E AIR POOLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SFC FRONTAL AXIS. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LOW OWING TO A LACK OF QUALITY MOISTURE
DEPTH...MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...COOLER TEMPS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE GFS...EC...AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM PV EJECTS OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HEIGHT RISES OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NEARLY MERIDIONAL OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. GFS PUSHES PWATS INTO THE 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO RANGE FOR NORTH PLATTE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...AS WELL AS A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IS TOUGH TO DISCERN AS THE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT QPF CURRENTLY
SHOWN IN THE MODELS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION.

MODELS MAINTAIN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PAC NW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HOLDING STRONG OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING SOME PATCHY AND LOCALIZED FG BR ALONG THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE RAIN WAS RECEIVED
OBER NIGHT. THIS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BRING KLBF TAF SITE INTO MVFR CATEGORIES
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH OCCURRING AT KLBF OR KVTN SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER






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