Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 211736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL BACK INTO THE FCST
AREA THIS AFTN PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY A SMALL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER NCNTL NEB WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
LOWS IN THE 20S. BY THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST ANY CLOUD
COVER WOULD LIE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEB WHICH
WOULD HOLD UP LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 50S NORTH
OF THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 20.

THE MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS CNTL/SERN NEB EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP MOVES THESE
CLOUDS SOUTHEAST AND THEN DROPS A SECOND BATCH OF CLOUDS INTO NRN
NEB AS EARLY AS 15Z WHICH HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN
MOVE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NAM MODEL WHILE THE HRRR
SHOWS TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS...COOL AIR
ALOFT...850 TEMP FROM 3C EAST TO 8C WEST...AND EVEN WITH SUN AND
GOOD MIXING...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
WEAK SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

A SECOND WAVE EJECTS FROM THE MAIN LOW AND ARRIVES TO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MARGINAL LIFT
INTO SW NEB MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS INITIALLY. A BETTER
CHANCE ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY AFTER WE GET SOME
HEATING. MODELS INCREASE CAPES TO A FEW 100 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AROUND ZERO OR SLIGHTLY NEG. GENERALLY THING ACTIVITY WILL
BE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HERE OR THERE.

BY FRIDAY THE MAIN LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO SEE A
WAVE OR TWO OF SHOWERS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. BETTER
MOISTURE LIFT ASSOCIATED CLOSER TO THE LOW...WHICH FAVORS HIGHER
POPS ACROSS SW NEB.

A SECOND WAVE...CLIPPER...QUICKLY FOLLOWS FOR THE WEEKEND. SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE
ARRIVES...ALTHOUGH TIMING THE BREAK IS DIFFICULT DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. FORECAST DOES RETAIN LOW POPS AND EXPECT THIS TO
CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE LULL IN ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE
CLEAR. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF THE DRY PERIOD TO
OCCUR SOMETIME SATURDAY...EARLIEST IS THE GEM/GFS...WHILE LATER
IS FAVORED BY THE ECMWF.

THE NEXT WAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA TO START THE WORK WEEK
DRY AND MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SWITCHING WESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KTS AND GUSTY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...UNR-SR



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