Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 010904
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST WYOMING A FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH IOWA. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA
WITH A MOISTURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E SHOWS THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY EAST OF A
PINERIDGE-IMPERIAL LINE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN-NORTH DAKOTA TRIPLE POINT.
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERATING SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN THE MOIST AIR IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO
-5C...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST A FEW GROUND
STRIKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE
VERY DRY SO...INITIALLY AT LEAST...LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DRY LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COOLER AIR SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME MORNING PRECIP ENTER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
IS MARGINAL AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS. SHOULD BE A
COOL AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 60 IN
THE EAST.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SW NEB...ALONG AND S
OF THE INTERSTATE. THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
THE MAIN WAVE AND WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX/CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW COLUMN FALLS WELL BELOW
FREEZING IN THE EVENING WITH THE KEY TO BE HOW FAST WE COOL AT
THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE FALL...HOWEVER CAA WILL AID IN
TEMPS FALLING. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL COMPARED TO
RECENT...BUT NOT TO FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMS AND DRY.

WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH 60S MAYBE 70 FOR
HIGHS. ONCE AGAIN FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS RH
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LOWER. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT NOW IS ASSOCIATED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED CIGS
AON 20000 FT AGL AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AT THE KLBF TERMINAL ON WEDNESDAY. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...EXPECT
BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10000 FT AGL WEDS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 18Z FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...AND AROUND 20Z AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. WIND SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE THRESHOLD OF 15
PERCENT (20 PERCENT FOR THE LOUP VALLEY) AND WIND IS
MARGINAL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AT LEAST AT THE
START OF CONVECTION PLUS THE LIKELIHOOD OF VARIABLE WIND WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT WITH A FRONT. WITH THAT IN
MIND...WE ARE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ209-210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER




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