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000
FXUS63 KLBF 100956
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
NO CHANGES TO SPLIT FLOW AS A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS
THE CONUS. SEVERAL LOWS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE STATES THIS
MORNING. THE NORTHERN STREAM HAS A LOW MOVING ACROSS E
MONTANA...WHILE THE NEXT LOW IS ABOUT TO COME ONSHORE IN THE PAC
NORTHWEST. SOCAL IS SEEING YET ANOTHER LOW COMING ONSHORE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING A STRONG PACIFIC FEED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE SOCAL LOW. CLOSER TO HOME...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS CAUSING WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL ADVECT MORE LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SAT
IMAGERY REVEALS LOW STRATUS RACING NORTH OVER WESTERN KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND RESULTING
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEGIN THE
DAY...THE STRATUS TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL RISE WHILE
THE SUN IS BRIGHT...HOWEVER EXPECT A STALL TO SLOW RISE AFTER THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...HOWEVER COLDEST READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON
THE GROUND.

BY TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPTION MAY BE THE PANHANDLE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH SOUTH WINDS...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE OF LL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR WEAK LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST...AND NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK. MAIN TRACK OF NORTHERN STREAM LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
INTO AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL. 850MB TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
ACCOUNTING FOR BETTER SNOW COVERAGE...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
NW DOWN SLOPING WINDS...WILL PUSH WESTERN TEMPS CLOSE TO 40 FOR
THURS AND FRI.

BY THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS...AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND A RETURN OF COLD
TEMPS...AS 850 MB TEMPS BACK TO AROUND -15C. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED COLDER THAN THERE 12Z COUNTERPARTS...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF LOW TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD
TEMPS. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO ERN NEBR AND ERN
KS. STRATUS FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS IS STREAMING NWRD FROM SWRN KS AND
SERN CO. NEITHER THE NAM12...RUC...OR GFS ARE CAPTURING STRATUS AREA
SUFFICIENTLY. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL INDICATES STRATUS MAY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND REACH KLBF NEAR 17Z. THIS IS PAST THE 15Z TIME WHERE
KLBF TAF HAS OVC008 ARRIVING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TREND AND
MAY DELAY ARRIVAL TIL 17Z IN UPCOMING 12Z TAF. BETTER COVERAGE OF
IFR CIGS APPEARS SET FOR AFT 00Z/11TH. CURRENT 06Z TAF FOR KVTN
KEEPS OUT PREVAILING STRATUS WITH ONLY SCT012 AFT 17Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG