Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 051723
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
Updated 935 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015
Forecast on track for highs in the low/mid 80s today. Still think
the best chance for any isolated storms will be just southeast of
our Lake Cumberland counties. Merged current observations with our
gridded forecast, but no change needed for the zones.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015
Upper level ridging has slowly started to strengthen over our region
and will continue to do so in the short term period. Sfc high
pressure centered to our southeast will continue over the next few
days also. These features will generally result in a dry forecast.
However, some of the models continue to indicate a few isld
showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.
If this is true, isld convection may bubble up after we surpass
convective temps. These very small chances of precip look more
likely for Wed than today. However, most areas will stay dry and
with the lack of moisture and a trigger, will continue with a dry
forecast overall today and tomorrow. There`s about a 10% chance
someone might see a stray shower or storm around or just after peak
daytime heating today and Wed.
As for temperatures, the airmass will slightly warm over the next
few days under a weak southerly flow. Also, as the ground gets
drier, sfc temps will be able to peak a little higher each
afternoon. For today, we`ll stay in the 82 to 87 degree range for
highs...a degree or so warmer than yesterday. Under good rad
cooling, overnight lows tonight should drop into the mid 50s to
around 60. Wednesday`s highs should range from 83 to 88.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue May 5 2015
General upper ridging will help to suppress most convection through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, though, the ridge will
edge to the east and will allow southwest flow to set up first over
southern Indiana, then gradually into central Kentucky as well.
Disturbances riding this flow from the southern Plains to the Great
Lakes will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms. Shower
and storm chances will continue into Monday as a surface front
approaching from the west further enhances the chance of rain.
High temperatures will be in the 80s each day. The warmest 850
temps occur over the weekend but actual surface temps may be
tempered somewhat by clouds and scattered showers/storms. Dew
points through the period will range from mid 50s to mid 60s.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Tue May 5 2015
VFR still expected this period with ridging aloft. We do have a pool
of moisture causing some scattered to broken clouds, but with high
bases. Winds will become more variable overnight and into Wednesday
as a surface high pressure edges a little closer to the region. With
that high, we may be able to see some light fog at the BWG/LEX
terminals Wednesday morning, but confidence is too low to put in
this set of TAFs.