Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 262303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
703 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Weather for the short term period will be dry but cool with
temperatures below normal for this time of year. Aloft a large
trough will slowly shift eastward across the eastern CONUS. At the
surface high pressure will be ridging in from the north.

Clouds across southern KY should continue to clear this afternoon.
Mostly clear skies are expected overnight. Some clouds may develop
across the northern Bluegrass tomorrow as a wave moves through the
flow aloft. These should clear tomorrow night. Lows tonight and
tomorrow night will be in the lower to mid 40s with a few sheltered
locations dropping into the upper 30s. Highs Monday will be in the
lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Synoptic pattern by midweek is expected to feature a lingering
trough across the eastern CONUS while a split flow lies from the
central Plains. At the surface, weak high pressure to our north will
keep a drier and seasonably cool air mass in place. By late Tuesday
into Wednesday, a southern stream system is poised to track along
the Gulf coast states and the main forecast concern is how far north
precipitation spreads into the forecast area.

The 26.12z GFS/ECMWF are in similar agreement showing precipitation
spreading as far north as the Ohio River Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday morning. The GEM solution is further south, confining
precipitation along/south of the KY border. Given the trends,
introduced slight chances of rain showers for the southern 1/3 to
1/2 of the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday morning. This
system isn`t overly moist as PWATs remain 1 inch or less.

Following this system, the forecast by the end of the upcoming work
week is looking very pleasant as upper level ridging moves over the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will allow
a slow but steady moderation in temperatures. Plan on highs to range
in the upper 60s to near 70 Thursday/Friday, low to mid 70s Saturday
and upper 70s on Sunday. Morning lows in the upper 40s to 50s. Sunny
to mostly sunny skies look to prevail each day.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Still have some lingering high-based clouds at BWG, but rest of the
night should clear out nicely. Winds will continue generally from
the north, and a little stronger in the LEX/SDF corridor, where the
pressure gradient is slightly tighter this hour. All sites should go
down to around 5 knots or less by late evening and then bump back up
to 5-10 knots from the north and northeast Monday, as high pressure
continues to ridge into the region from Central Canada.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........RJS





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