Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 260230
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of boundary /
warm front that currently is draped south of the Louisville /
Lexington metro areas. Environment along/south of the boundary
characterized by MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50
kt effective shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but
expecting storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our
west to make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has
deeper CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/
so damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT





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