Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 011913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Fri May 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri May 1 2015

Cold upper level low continues to head off to the east through the
Carolinas this afternoon.  In its wake, some low-level moisture has
remained entrenched across east-central KY resulting in partly to
mostly cloudy skies.  Further west, drier air has resulted in sunny
skies.  Where the cloudiness remains, temperatures remain in the
upper 50s to around 60, but in the sunshine, mid-upper 60s were
reported via NWS Observations and the KY Mesonet.  We do not expect
much change in the weather over the next few hours.  Partly to
mostly sunny skies are expected with afternoon max temps occurring
in the next hour.  For this evening, clearing skies and diminishing
winds will result in temperatures falling into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s.

For tonight, mainly clear skies are expected with light winds.  Some
patchy fog will be possible in the low-lying and valley locations,
especially across southern and southeastern sections.  Overall,
threat of widespread fog development remains low and overnight
minimum temperatures will fall into the mid-upper 40s to around 50
in most locales.

For Saturday/Saturday night, high pressure ridge will continue to
build in from the west and is forecast to be right over the region
by the evening hours.  A mid-level wave transversing the region
aloft will continue to shear out as it heads east.  While we`ll have
moisture aloft, the low-level profiles continue to look rather dry
and lapse rates still rather meager.  Thus, still think a dry
forecast is the way to go for the afternoon hours.  Highs on the day
should top out in the 70-75 degree range.  Mostly clear skies will
return to the region Saturday night with lows dropping back in the
mid-upper 40s in the valleys with upper 40s to around 50 elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 1 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weakly zonal flow aloft, which will quickly transition to a
building ridge aloft by the middle of next week as a Rex block
establishes itself across the eastern CONUS.  This regime will make
for a rather dry long term period, with above normal temperatures.

The long term period looks to mostly be a temperature forecast as
the aforementioned ridging takes hold, limiting rain chances.
However, there appear to be two small chances of precipitation.  One
may come as early as Monday night into Tuesday mainly over southern
IN as a weak front settles across portions of IN/OH.  However, the
guidance consensus suggests that this front and associated precip
will remain just to the north of the region, so will continue with a
dry forecast.  The only other chance of precipitation looks to come
late in the long term period, Thursday into Friday when the
upper-level ridging finally begins to break down.  However, guidance
tends to break down blocking patterns too quickly, so think Thursday
into Friday will likely end up mainly dry.  Will limit pops to just
slight chances at this time given this reasoning.

Otherwise, temperatures through the period will run above normal as
the Ohio Valley will be on the western side of an area of high
pressure.  This means southerly flow will continue through much of
the period.  Temperatures each day will be slightly modulated by the
amount of mid/high cloud cover that may stream through, but
temperatures generally look to be in the upper 70s/80s for highs,
with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Fri May 1 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the region this afternoon
resulting in VFR conditions.  Some low end VFR cigs will be possible
at KLEX this afternoon with cigs running around FL030-035.  However,
expect these to break up later this afternoon and evening.  Skies
are expected to be clear tonight with mainly VFR conditions.  There
remains a slight chance of some low-level fog at KLEX/KBWG in the
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ




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