Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 062141
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 72 HOURS. UNLIKE WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE COOLED A BIT A H850 FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR BY A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS. BESIDE FOR THAT CHANGE
AMONG THE MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE.

ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE BEING PUSHED EAST AND OVER
CANADA THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED 500 MILES SOUTH OF
UNALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. FROM THIS
UPPER LOW...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHWARD FROM THIS
EASTWARD MOVING LOW...MOVING OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REACHING THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK...IT WILL SPLIT
INTO TWO CENTERS...ONE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER ROUGHLY 800
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL ROTATE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN...AND APPROACH THE THE
GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A LOW OVER SIBERIA
AND GRAZE THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.

SURFACE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STRETCHING
FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY TO OVER FAIRBANKS...AND EAST TO EAGLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK 1003 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORCING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING
FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL BE SPLIT BY
A SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW TONIGHT.

WESTERN ALASKA...MORNING IMAGES FROM THE MODIS SPORT MICROPHYSICS
RGB PRODUCT SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND VICINITY AND BERING STRAIT NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA AND KOTZEBUE SOUND VICINITY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE
AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AROUND
KOTZEBUE SOUND. THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST. BOTH
THE BETHEL AND NOME RADARS HAVE PICKED UP ON SOME SHOWERS LATE
THIS MORNING. AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS THE
MOISTURE IS FORCED NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN
TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER ZONES 216 AND 227 FOR THURSDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY...BUT ITS NOT LIKELY GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
CLOUD COVER.

NORTH SLOPE...IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...CLEARING
SKIES AND FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRATUS AND FOG WILL RETURN IN TIME FOR THE
WEEKEND. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AS A
SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ANOTHER COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS
ARE ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
AND A SOUTHERLY CHINOOK DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
THIS COMBINED WITH ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF
FAIRBANKS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL FORM JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY
THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THU. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226.

SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THOSE SAME AREAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUIET BREAK UP CONTINUES. OPEN LEADS AND SHIFTING ICE NEAR
NATION RIVER ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT OPEN WATER NEAR CIRCLE
REPORTED FROM THE RIVER WATCH FLIGHT OVER THE UPPER YUKON LATE
THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS ALONG THE TANANA
AND YUKON RIVERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS ARE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/HYDRO...LTH
FIRE WEATHER...JB/LTH

MAY 15



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