Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280218
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



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