Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191748
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ON/OFF AGAIN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRATOCU DECK OVERHEAD. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AS THIS STRATOCU DECK THINS AND MID CLOUDS MOVE IN.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 30-35 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AROUND SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND OUT OF THE
SOUTH MONDAY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP
THIS MORNING WITH LOCAITONS OUTSIDE OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY. LATEST
KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 40 KTS SUSTAINED WINDS AT AROUND 5
KFT. IN ADDITION SODAR WIND DATA INDICATE AROUND 30-40 KTS AROUND
100-200 FEET OFF THE GROUND WHICH SUPPORTS THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY. EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS. CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
HITTING 40 KTS AT KAMA IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL
PIVOT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KGUY AND POSSIBLY CLIP KDHT. THESE SHOWERS
WILL PUSH EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DROP
OFF AROUND SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MAINLY
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH POSSIBLE
MAINLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND SHOULD LAST UNTIL AROUND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND SPEEDS BEGIN DIMINISHING. WILL ISSUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THOUGH UNTIL ABOUT 23Z TODAY BUT COULD BE CANCELLED
EARLIER BY 21Z TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME CONVECTION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
PROPAGATES INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT CONTINUES TO BACK UP EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLES MONDAY ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA WEDNESDAY BACKDOORS
INTO THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE THIS WEEK.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MID TO LATE WEEK OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OR THIRD...DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/17





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