Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 041515
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1115 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE... NO SIG CHGS TO THE FCST THROUGH THIS AFTN.

SAT/RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM THAT FRNTL CLDS/PCPN ARE STILL WELL
UPSTREAM ACRS MI AND SRN ONT ATTM...WITH A FAIR AMT OF SUNSHINE
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER CNY/NE PA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTN.
THUS...WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY LATE DAY SHWRS IN THE SRN
TUG HILL/MOHAWK VLY/FINGER LAKES RGNS OF CNY...DELAYING THIS ONSET
TIL ARND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.

WE BUMPED UP BOTH HIGH TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS A BIT THIS AFTN...AS
RGNL 12Z SNDGS SHOW A VERY WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT UP TO ARND 700
MB. PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS ALSO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80-85 RANGE
FOR MANY AREAS.

OWING TO THE VERY DRY WELL MIXED ATMOS JUST ALLUDED TO...WE LWRD
DEW PTS SVRL DEGS AREA-WIDE...LEANING HEAVILY ON THE LATEST HRRR
DATA. THIS EFFECTIVELY LWRD MIN RH VALUES AN ADDITIONAL 5-10% THIS
AFTN...AND THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

PREV DISC... SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH T85 AROUND 12C, MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND BOUNDARY AS FEATURE BEHAVES LIKE
AN ANAFRONT. DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE, RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATE NO SFC BASED CAPE AND FAIRLY STABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST.

TUESDAY...SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER CENTRAL PA SO WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NE
PA, ALTHOUGH TALL/SKINNY CAPE, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER
HERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL NY
WITH READING AROUND 50 IN NE PA DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.

WED/WED NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MAXES WED WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM SUN UPDATE... OVERALL...A SPRING-LIKE PD STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE...WITH NEAR TO ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY MAY FORESEEN ACRS
CNY/NE PA.

ON THE LARGE-SCALE...UPR-LVL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN
U.S...AS A LARGE TROUGH DIGS INTO/ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. ASSOCD
SFC RIDGING ACRS THE MID-ATL STATES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WX
FROM WED NGT-FRI.

MORE QUESTIONS ARISE BY NEXT WEEKEND (SAT-SUN)...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH/SFC COLD FRNT TO OUR NW
COMES INTO PLAY...ALG WITH THE PATH/EXTENSIVENESS OF MOISTURE
BEING STEERED OUT FROM THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING CYCLONE
(TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS?) NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST.
DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN
INSERTED...THEY ARE KEPT FAIRLY LOW ATTM (SCHC/CHC VALUES).

DAILY HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME
LWR 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES IN THINKING SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST TODAY, GRADUALLY YIELDING TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SWINGING DOWN FROM ONTARIO. DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR DAY, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KNOTS.

NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM NEAR AVP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE...OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTS AREA-WIDE TIL 7 PM.

12Z SNDGS SHOW A DEEP WELL MIXED BLYR ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTN...PROMOTING DRY SFC CONDS...AND EFFICIENT WIND GUSTS. MIN RH
VALUES ARE NOW DOWN TO 15-25%...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
FIRE WEATHER...MLJ


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