Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 070243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS PUTS SURFACE LOW NEAR MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH BISMARCK TO
GARRISON AND MINOT. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN TO THE EAST OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH...THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE FOR THE BISMARCK MANDAN METRO AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME RECENT THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT THUNDER FOR BISMARCK YET LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
CHANCES WILL WANE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SMALL CHANCES
REMAINING OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. OVERALL VERY FEW
CHANGES WITH CLOUDY SKIES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER
AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 40S WEST TO 50S EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM AROUND ELGIN AND NEW SALEM NORTH TO GARRISON...MINOT AND
WESTHOPE. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWEST.
MINOR UPDATES TO PRECIPITATION BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE EARLIER DRY SLOT IS BEGINNING TO FILL
IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATES NORTHEAST
AND ENTERS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOMETIME TONIGHT.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.3 INCHES. THIS IS
UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH ALL OF THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE (LIFT...MOISTURE ETC.) IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE GREATER THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN AND SOME
MAY EVEN SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ADDITIONALLY INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST ANALYSIS BRINGS 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTH. LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS TIME...SO SHOWERS WHILE TAKING
ON A MORE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TAPPING INTO
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS FOLLOW HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE WE SHOULD SEE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FORM WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND COME TO AN END LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS COOL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BY THURSDAY EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END FOR ALL BUT
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER AIR TO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR FROST EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT 5 TO 7
DAYS LOOK RATHER CLOUDY...AND THESE CLOUDS MAY PREVENT LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE AREAS SOUTH OF I-94 STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT RECEIVING SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THIS EVENING WITH A VCTS MENTIONED AT KBIS AND KMOT. SOUTHEAST
FLOW FROM KBIS AND KMOT TO KJMS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND THEN SHIFT
NORTHWEST. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED NORTHWEST AT KISN AND KDIK
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



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