Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 280904
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
304 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER TODAY AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE COMES WITH SURFACE THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE NW COAST WILL COME INLAND AND THROUGH
OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY BREEZY COOLER WX...TEMPS 6-10 DEGS LOWER THAN TODAY...AND WEST/NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH.  FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NW FRINGE OF OUR CWA...I.E. WRN HARNEY
AND WRN BAKER COUNTIES AND THEN NRN-MOST VALLEY COUNTY/ID.  MODELS
...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN WRN HARNEY COUNTY...AND MET WIND
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUTFLOW WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF
HARNEY COUNTY.  THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BUT GFS IS LESS CLEAR ABOUT
IT.  LATE WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STILL BE ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY.
RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW...WITH THE JET AXIS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ENOUGH MOISTURE DRIFTING NORTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE ON TUESDAY
...BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS.


.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY OREGON 00Z-06Z WITH OUTFLOW
ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT STRONGER AND
GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATIONH....JT


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