Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 061846
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TO
COASTAL GEORGIA THURSDAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL STALL OFFSHORE OF SC THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING
NORTH TOWARDS THE GA COAST TONIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW WILL BEGINNING THE DAY OFFSHORE OF SAVANNAH AND REACH
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW STALLS OFFSHORE OF
MYRTLE BEACH AND BEGINS DRIFTING WESTWARD. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE
SPREADING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THE RELATIVELY
COOL WATER TEMPERATURES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS
INTENSIFICATION. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENTLY FORECASTS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND AND TIDAL CONCERNS ALONG THE COAST THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH UP TO ONE HALF
INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
FOR THE MIDLANDS. CONCERN WITH RAINFALL WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE ACCUMULATIONS GREATLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COASTAL LOW
LINGERING WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF SC SATURDAY
THEN BEGIN SLOWLY EJECTING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFS REMAINS SLOWEST EJECTING THE LOW SO HAVE TRENDED THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME TOWARD THE ECMWF. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY AND MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. CONCERN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
POSITION AND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL LOW. WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DIURNAL HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL
CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MODELS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTH TO THE SC
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL START MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS
AROUND AGS AT SUNRISE. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE TRENDING TO KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST AND TAKING IT TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IMPACTS OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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