Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 040158
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
H5 RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO ERN U.S. AT THIS TIME WITH SKIES HVG
CLRD ACRS AREA WITH LOSS OF HTG. CURRENT TEMPS ARE ARND 50F IN THE
NORTH WOODS WITH LOCALES ACRS INTERIOR DOWNEAST STILL ARND 60F AS
OF THIS TIME. COASTAL ZONES HV COOLED INTO THE 40S WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. EXPECT FOG WL BEGIN TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT AS DWPT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ARND 4F. NO CHGS NEEDED TO ONGOING FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST TO NEARLY 50F
IN THE ALLAGASH. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARM SW WIND AND A THERMAL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR TO DATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. READINGS AS
HIGH AS THE LOW 80S CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND
READINGS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ROLL INTO BANGOR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND COOL THINGS OFF. VERY WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL GENERATE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
ZONES. THESE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FINE FUELS HAVE CREATED
THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WATCH. HAVE EXCLUDED THE COASTAL ZONES DUE
TO MARINE INFLUENCES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH DEW POINTS TODAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR PROBLEMS FOR MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON DEW POINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
DEEP MIXING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE MONDAY FORECAST
EXCEPT THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER THREAT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
W/A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED W/A WSW FLOW ALOFT. DECIDED
ON 60% POPS FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST W/CHANCE ELSEWHERE AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY THE GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY W/THE BEST
INSTABILITY ALONG THE MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. WE ARE TALKING SB
CAPES OF AROUND 300 JOULES AND 850-700MBS LAPSE RATES OF 6.0+
C/KM. PWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.00" W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KT. THE NAM IS NOT AS STRONG W/THE INSTABILITY AND NOT AS MOIST AS
THE GFS. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE NOTED ALONG W/A JET MAX
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS FEATURE BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES W/SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXTRAPOLATING THIS FORWARD
WOULD PUT SOME INSTABILITY NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER.
THEREFORE, ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA.
QPF WILL BE AT BEST 0/15-0.25" AND ONCE AGAIN MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY W/SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. NW WINDS TAKE OVER AND PICK TO 15-20 MPH
W/GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP BACK ON WEDNESDAY AS SECOND FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
W/GUST POTENTIAL TO 30+ MPH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 60 AND AROUND
70S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST
TO A TAD COOLER. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY W/A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRNG-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF AND
THE CANADIAN GLOBAL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. USING
A CONSENSUS APCH, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS AND LEAN W/JUST
SHOWERS ATTM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
CONVECTION AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS. FOG AND POSSIBLE
STRATUS FORECAST FOR BHB AND BGR AFTER 07Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 20-30KTS LATE
IN TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS(CIGS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: QUIET CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: ANY POTENTIAL FOR SCA WILL BE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. ATTM, DECIDED TO CAP
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S FOR NOW. MIXING LOOKS TO BE BETTER OVER
THE LAND W/FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW 4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...HAVE ISSUED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT COASTAL
HANCOCK AND COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES. FIRE CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL...LOW HUMIDITY
AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...HAVE ISSUED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT COASTAL
HANCOCK AND COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES. FIRE CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL...LOW HUMIDITY
AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT/VJN
AVIATION...FARRAR/MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MCW/HEWITT
FIRE WEATHER...


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