Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192049
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NICE NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WITH LOWLAND AREAS
SEEING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AREA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
CLEARING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
BORDERLAND FROM THE WEST COAST. IT BRINGS STRONGER WINDS AND ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND WARM
WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS BORDERLAND LOWLAND AREAS. AREA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MEETS A SURFACE COOL
FRONT TRYING TO PENETRATE THE AREA FROM THE EAST. GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SUPPLY IN THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT DO MATERIALIZES WILL BE
BRIEF WITH SPOTTY AND LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STICK AROUND UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON TRYING TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT THE
REGIONAL AIR MASS AND WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY DURING ALL THREE AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THE PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE CWA. MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE FOR THE AREA. GFS IS MORE MOIST AND HAS INCREASED RAIN
COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF BRINGS
PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. THUS...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE WHAT EXTENDED SUPERBLEND AND PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAS
PUT INTO GRIDDED POP/WEATHER FIELDS...SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN ZONES AND PERHAPS THE BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO
WITH GENERALLY INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE WINDY BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THE LOW QUICKLY FILLS AND EJECTS EASTWARD LEAVING BEHIND
DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND MILD DYNAMICS
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN STORMS INTO FRIDAY. FOR NEXT WEEKEND A
FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
RESULTS SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z...

BKN CU WITH BASES GENERALLY
7-10KFT DEVELOPING OVER AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A STAY THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY
DOWNDRAFT WINDS FROM EVAPORATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
THE GILA REGION...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SIERRA COUNTY...AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. DID NOT MENTION VCTS IN TCS TAF DUE TO
OVERALL LOW PROBABILITIES AT A POINT LOCATION.

OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY
EXCEPT WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING...AND MAYBE A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWLAND
DESERTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CU BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY DRY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CU HAS BUILT UP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS EXPECTED...BUT SO FAR VERY FEW RADAR ECHOES
SHOWING UP. GIVEN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS. IF
WE CANNOT GET SOMETHING GOING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE TOMORROW GIVEN SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER FORCING.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER LOP-SIDED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OVERALL
PATTERN...BUT A DEEPENING TROUGH AND EMBEDDED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE EAST...BRINGING INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...AND EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THU/FRI ALSO LOOK TO HAVE THE STRONGEST
WINDS... BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CRITERIA. IT BEARS WATCHING BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  81  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           47  78  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              46  79  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  78  48  80  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              35  57  38  60  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  78  47  79  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             42  72  42  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  43  80  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               42  79  43  79  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  81  55  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               48  79  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            50  82  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  75  51  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  49  81  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            49  80  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          52  78  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           43  79  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   45  80  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                48  79  50  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               50  78  50  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 38  64  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               38  64  40  67  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  64  41  67  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 38  70  38  72  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               42  76  44  77  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  79  44  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            38  70  38  71  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  40  74  42  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   39  79  40  78  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  76  36  75  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 42  75  43  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  79  47  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 44  80  44  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  79  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              43  75  44  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$
PAZOS/HARDIMAN





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