Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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