Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 190437
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE
06Z AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 08S IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LINE. THINGS ARE A BIT MORE MUDDLED AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS LINE OF PRECIP WILL MOVE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS AN EASTWARD
PUSH TO THE NORTHERN HALF AND A SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LINE. THE LINE IS STILL GENERATING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40
KNOTS SO FEEL IT IS BEST TO CARRY VCTS AND TEMPO A WIND GUST GROUP
AS FAR AS KHOU AND KSGR. THE COLD POOL/PRESSURE RISES LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE HRRR SOLUTION FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME W-SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE HRRR/GFS ADVERTISE A
TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE AFTN SO ADDED GUSTS TO THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES CLOSER TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SE TX ON SUN AFTN. NAM 12 FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTH. JET DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE WITH SE TX
LYING IN A LFQ BETWEEN 18-00Z. HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR KCXO
NORTHWARD. SOUNDINGS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE FOR THE HOUSTON
TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTN BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. ONE LAST
CAVEAT...IF SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP BUT
JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS
STORMS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HEADING TOWARD OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SPC WAS NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING
ANY WATCHES WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX. IF THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
IS CORRECT...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO AND
ACROSS OUR AREA.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SENT OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE AND RAISED POPS AREA WIDE DUE
TO ONGOING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
OFF THE COAST...AND FOR DEVELOPING STORMS OUT WEST THAT THE MODELS
HAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.  42


MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  56  75  54 /  60  20  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  85  61  78  57 /  50  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  81  66  77  66 /  50  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...43



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.