Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 070207
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1007 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES PLACING THE OHIO
VALLEY IN A WARM AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT FOR THE MOST PART...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND... PROVIDING A RETURN OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY FOLLOWED SUIT...WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHERE 700MB MOISTURE IS A LITTLE BIT
THICKER THAN ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION.

THERE APPEARED TO BE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...WITH LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S)
TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP BY EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WARMER STARTING POINT (AND THE FRONT NOW A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY)...THE CHANCES FOR ANY DENSE FOG
APPEAR GREATER CLOSER TO THE LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AND OHIO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROF OVER THE WEST AND A
RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD A LITTLE EAST BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS ILN/S FA NRN COUNTIES INVOF E-W ORIENTED SFC
FRONT WHERE MARGINAL INSTBY EXISTS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLD SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACRS NRN KY. THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH LACK OF SHEAR THEY WILL GO UP AND DOWN QUICKLY WITH ALL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING.

SFC FRONT ACRS OUR NORTH TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND THEN
SLIDE SLIGHTLY EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
IN THE FAR WEST IN AFTN BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS A LTL EAST MORE
FAVORABLE INSTBY DEVELOPS AND THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
WEST FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUS WARMTH ON THE WEEKEND...THE
PASSAGE OF A WEATHER SYSTEM WITH GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THREATS...AND A BRIEF TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT 12Z ON SATURDAY...FLOW STILL QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NOAM
CONTINENT AND ADJACENT WATERS. PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SC
COAST...TRAPPED WITHIN/UNDERNEATH LARGE SCALE RIDGING CENTERED ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP/LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED IN
THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NM/UTAH. SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST.

SAT/SUN PUT THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE ERN FRINGE OF MODEST SWLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING
WRN/CNTL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. 925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND
20C BOTH DAYS WHICH SHOULD YIELD MORE LOW/MID 80S...WITH DEWPTS
INCREMENTALLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S ADDING DOSE OF SUMMERTIME
MUGGINESS TO THE AIR. SYNOPTIC FORCING QUITE WEAK...BUT
NONZERO...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY /LIKELY REMNANT MCV/S FROM
PLAINS CONVECTION/ TRAVERSING FROM WRN KY/IND INTO MICH THROUGH BOTH
DAYS. SO THINK THERE WILL BE SHRA/STORMS ON BOTH DAYS /ESP WRN OH
AND SERN IND/ BUT LIKELY LOOSELY FOCUSED WITH A NOTED DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
DETAIL TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IN THE RAIN CHANCE DEPT. NEITHER
DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT...IN FACT...THE BULK OF BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
DRY/WARM.

LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY....CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH OHIO VALLEY STILL
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES/FOCUS
SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO MONDAY
EVE. CONTINUED WITH 50-65% RAIN CHANCES THIS PERIOD TO COINCIDE WITH
THE ENSEMBLE-DRIVEN SIGNALS IN THIS TIME FRAME. LIKELY STILL A VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST WHERE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WILL BE LESS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY/ ALSO INCREASES
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER-END SVR THREAT IF FORCING/INSTBY CAN
BE JUXTAPOSED SUFFICIENTLY SOMETIME MONDAY AFTN/EVE.

CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHEAR DOWNSTREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. UNFAVORABLE TIMING FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN SO
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN HIGH CHANCE AREA AT THIS TIME RANGE. TURNING
COOLER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA...BUT
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AS A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BUILDS IN...WITH DETERMINISTIC 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 0C IN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY RIGHT NOW LOOK LOW-MID 60S...QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...AND LOOKS LIKE COOLER WX WILL LINGER INTO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE...AND WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN MOST OF THE TAFS...THOUGH KLUK COULD EXPERIENCE IFR
CONDITIONS AS IS COMMON.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS (UNDER 10 KNOTS) AND DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL
AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HATZOS





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