Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 051518
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER GEORGIA. LATE
MORNING READINGS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED GOOD RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHICH
WAS AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN
THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS THE CWA WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THERE WAS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER AL/MS BORDER INTO THE GULF.
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE RATHER DRY WITH PWATS GENERALLY UNDER 1
INCH. MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS OBSERVED AT LCH AND SHV
SOUNDINGS...WHICH GOES WITH THE BETTER FLOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY THIS MORNING FROM THE 50S AND 60S. SO
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
HIRES MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. SO WITH
THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP FORECAST AS WRITTEN./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...308 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL GET A PUSH TO THE WEST TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK MORE FROM THE EAST AND LOWER DEWPOINTS TO
MOVE BACK IN FROM AL/GA. DRIER PARCELS TODAY AND PERSISTENT CAP ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MAKE CONVECTION HARD TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON.

REPOSITIONING OF SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BY WEDNESDAY. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL
INDICATING THAT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A SURGE OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS. WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTER PARCELS...BELIEVE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SEVERE AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN SUB
MOIST ADIABATIC AND NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...LOOK TO REMAIN WEDGED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...MODELS TRY TO BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AND
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S EACH NIGHT. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  59  83  63 /   2   3  11  10
MERIDIAN      85  56  83  60 /   1   3   7   3
VICKSBURG     84  60  84  64 /   4   3   9   8
HATTIESBURG   85  59  82  62 /   4   3  27  17
NATCHEZ       83  61  82  65 /   6   3  23  16
GREENVILLE    85  61  84  64 /   3   3   6   6
GREENWOOD     86  59  84  63 /   2   3   5   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



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