Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 031734
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS
PROVIDING A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW. MAINLY HIGH BASED
FAIR WX CU WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT BETWEEN LCH AND LFT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND BPT AND AEX DUE PARTIALLY TO
SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HRRR IMPLIES ISOLD SHOWERS A
POSSIBLILITY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AS COVERAGE WOULD BE
TOO SPARSE TO WORRY ABOUT. CONTINUED VFR.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TWD THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD -RW ACROSS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MSTR...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
EAST FROM TX...AND WEAK LL CONVERGENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
QUICK LOOK OUTSIDE REVEALS MOSTLY FLAT CU...THOUGH SOME VERTICAL
DEPTH WAS NOTED OFF TO THE EAST/SE. KLCH/KPOE 88DS HAVE SHOWN SOME
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
A LOW POP ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FCST FOR TODAY.
REMAINING GRIDS LOOK FINE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY KEEPING A LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE
FROM THE WRN GULF UP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SFC OBS INDICATE LITTLE CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD ATTM...WHILE
REGIONAL 88DS ARE ACCORDINGLY PPINE.

ONE MORE DRY DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT HOLDS FIRM. SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SHOULD BE THE
RULE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OVER THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM ALOFT MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL GIVE A PUSH
TO THE RIDGE...EVENTUALLY SHOVING IT TO THE SERN CONUS. IN THE
MEANTIME A WEAK ERLY WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIP PAST THE REGION ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THEREAFTER SMALL POPS...MAINLY DAYTIME...LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM GRADUALLY OPENS
AND LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN CONUS AND PLAINS STATES...USHERING IN
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE WRN GULF STATES.

MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW...THOUGH SOMETIMES MORE ERLY...WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SERN
CONUS AND OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST CAUTION-CRITERIA WINDS BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  58  82  63 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  81  61  82  66 /  20   0  20  20
LFT  82  61  81  64 /  20  10  30  20
BPT  83  63  83  67 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11


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