Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 012200
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 PM PDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN WHITE PINE
COUNTY. CONTINUED CHILLY ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A HARD FREEZE IN
THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT A PLEASANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH, MUCH COOLER ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, RUNNING SOME 25
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S READINGS. MUCH LESS WIND AND INCREASING
CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG THE OREGON COAST, AND THIS WILL SWING THROUGH NEVADA
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES, WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS NEAR TONOPAH BY
5 AM THURSDAY. A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ABOUT
ANYWHERE TONIGHT, BUT MOISTURE IS VERY, VERY LIMITED (DEWPOINT AT
THE OFFICE CURRENTLY 5 DEGREES). BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS AND NEAR WHITE PINE
COUNTY, AS BRIEF DEFORMATION ZONE FROM SURFACE LOW AFFECTS THE SE
ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN ONE
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUT 2-3
INCHES IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SE WHITE PINE COUNTY, INCLUDING
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK.

THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS
DURING THE DAY, EXITING NE NEVADA BY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PROGGED INSTABILITY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, SO TOOK OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER, THOUGH WITH LIFTED INDEX DOWN TO -1, A STRIKE OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SNOW OR GRAUPEL SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS ELKO
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING COLD SURGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY, AGAIN STRUGGLING, AND IN MANY
CASES FAILING, TO GET TO 50 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...CLEAR AND COLD. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS, AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE COLDEST LOCALES. A DAMAGING FREEZE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
BLOSSOMING VEGETATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WITH A PLEASANT WARMING TREND. MOST
VALLEYS IN THE 50S FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH FRIDAY, AND INCREASE FURTHER
TO 15-30 MPH ON SATURDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS WHITE
PINE COUNTY. EVEN WITH THE SW WIND, SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
BEST/WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL. TURNER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING NEVADA WEATHER DURING
THE EASTER SUNDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS AGREE ON THIS ASPECT, BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. ELECTED TO
FOLLOW THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF RUN, WHICH HOLDS ONTO DECENTLY MILD
TEMPERATURES (LOWER 60S) FOR EASTER AFTERNOON. GFS HAS A KNOWN
PROGRESSIVE BIAS IN THESE SITUATIONS, AND IT APPEARS TO BE SHOWING
UP NOW. EVEN SLOWER ECMWF SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON EASTER, AND THIS WAS PLACED IN THE GRIDS.
ELSEWHERE, DRY DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION VERY LIMITED.
SW WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY ON EASTER, AVERAGING 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH.

PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL WEAKENS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PAC NW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH, NEVADA REMAINS IN DRY
DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW OFF THE SIERRA, KEEPING ANY LIGHT SHOWERS
CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS DRY BUT CHILLY MONDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50. 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
THE WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SIERRA LATE TUESDAY, SO
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. TURNER

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SHORTWAVE ALONG THE OREGON COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CLOUD CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN VFR AT
KWMC/KEKO/KTPH. AT KELY, CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR 12-18Z THU.
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED. -SHSN POSSIBLE AT OR NEAR
KELY 06-12Z THU. ISOLATED INSTABILITY -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES 18Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI, BUT IMPACTS
ON KEKO/KELY TERMINALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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