Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 042138
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
238 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AT FIRST IN EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THEN SPREADING INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NV THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONVERGE IN AN AREA
OF LI`S ZERO OR LESS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES AS MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TUESDAY EVENING...EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NYE
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN COOL
UPPER LOW DROP SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. A STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY AN H3 100 KT
JET TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS
FROM 6500 TO 7500 ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR WHITE PINE WHERE SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW WORKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL BE A DIRTY RIDGE WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. IN ADDITION...SOME SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED...HOWEVER SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS THEY HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ERRATIC AND REACH UP TO 40
MPH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TAKE PLACE TOMORROW. VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.EQUIPMENT...THE WINNEMUCCA ASOS IS EXPERIENCING TELECOMMUNICATIONS
ISSUES AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE ASOS IS NOT TRANSMITTING
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE INTERNET...LANDLINE COMMUNICATIONS REMAIN
OPERATIONAL. IT IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME WHEN THIS WILL BE REPAIRED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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