Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 190339 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1035 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...

SPOTTY RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG FORMING. BY DAWN SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL SLOWLY ERODE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MUCH OF ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POP UP IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REACH CENTRAL
SECTIONS BY EVENING. STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
IN WESTERN ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD EVENING. (46)
&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AND THE LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT AFFECT AR. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

DID SEE AREAS OF FOG...ISOLATED DENSE IN SPOTS...EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH THINNED OUT BY MID MORNING. WILL ADD TO FORECAST IN
TONIGHT EARLY SUNDAY PERIOD. CURRENT CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY MOVED E
TO NE TODAY...AND IT MAKING IT TO MORE OF WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
AR. TRENDS HAVE HELD INTENSITY DOWN AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUDS AND
THE WEAK LIFT ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
EASTERN CO AND ROTATING UPPER LIFT INTO THE REGION. TODAY THE MAIN
LIFT WAS OVER EASTERN OK TO KS...WHILE ALONG THE GULF OF MEX.
SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD. SHORT RANGE MODELS DID SHOW A BIT
OF LOWER COVERAGE OVER AR. SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY REMAINS LOW AND
VERY ISOLATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WILL START WITH A GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY DISSIPATING TONIGHT WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY. SOME ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE UPPER FLOW...SO WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST IN EASTERN AR AREAS.
FOG WILL BE SEEN AGAIN AND DENSE IN ISOLATED SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL
START A LULL IN CONVECTION AS UPPER ENERGY HAS PUSHED EAST. DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES IN KS AND
OK WITH IT SWINGING ACROSS AR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. SLIGHT
TO ENHANCE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE OVER AR...AS THE UPPER LOW
AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY
AND STORMS WILL FORM QUICKLY AND FORM INTO A LINE. STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES A LOWER THREAT. CAPE REACHES 2400 J/KG...LI TO -5 TO
-8...WHILE SOME SHEAR IN THE WIND PROFILE...ESPECIALLY OVER SE AR.
DUE TO OVERALL SATURATION OF SOME AREAS OF AR...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE SEEN. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES
THROUGH AR AND THIS MAY HELP TO HOLD OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOWN A
BIT. AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
PUSHING OUT OF AR...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIGHTER
CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TO NORTHERN
AR...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. ON MONDAY...MAINLY A DRY AND BREEZY DAY
IS FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPS. ON TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE W TO NW UPPER FLOW...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS
AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONT WILL BE
STALLED ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE
INSTABILITY FOR BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  74  52  68 /  60  70  60  10
CAMDEN AR         60  79  55  73 /  40  60  40   0
HARRISON AR       56  70  47  64 /  60  70  60  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  78  53  70 /  50  60  30   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  78  54  70 /  60  60  50   0
MONTICELLO AR     62  79  56  72 /  60  60  50   0
MOUNT IDA AR      57  76  51  69 /  50  60  20   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  72  49  65 /  60  70  60  10
NEWPORT AR        59  75  53  68 /  60  70  60  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  78  55  71 /  60  60  50   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  76  50  69 /  60  60  40   0
SEARCY AR         59  76  53  69 /  60  70  60  10
STUTTGART AR      61  77  55  70 /  60  60  60   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.