Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 180734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



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