Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 060434
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1234 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY
THEN DRIFT NORTH AND LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WED...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEW PT
TRENDS REST OF NIGHT...NO OTHER CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIUOS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
RIDGE WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE SLIGHTLY LIMITED BY DEBRIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER VICINITY OF THE
BAHAMAS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NC. CONTINUE PREV
THINKING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR TO MID 50S
INLAND AND AROUND 60 ON THE COAST. CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER HYDROLAPSES AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE EXTENSIVE
THOUGH SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM TUE...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PINCHED
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE... LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. POTENTIAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS
AREA...WITH GENERAL DRIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. UPPER
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW. AS THE LOW DRIFTS
NORTH...MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TO SLIGHTLY
DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUE TRENDS
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND UTILIZED A GFS/WPC BLEND FOR THE
WINDS...KEEPING PREVAILING WINDS NE/E GENERALLY 10-20 KTS ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF MODELS IS COMING TO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND NAM. CONTINUED WITH THE INCREASE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS
COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL
FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN NC COAST COULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE LOW WILL REMAIN
IN THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO
CHANCES. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES AND
STILL HIGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL SUMMERY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
PRODUCING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS WEDNESDAY. HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTH FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES AND HYDROLAPSES LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z. HIGH
CLOUDS MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS FOG
POTENTIAL. CONTINUE FORECAST LIGHT FOG/MVFR VISIBILITIES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU THROUGH
SAT WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIUOS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUE...ATLANTIC HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH S-SE WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...THE FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO
DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST MODELS ARE BECOMING
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY BEING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONTINUE TO RELY ON
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND MODEL BLENDS TO FORECAST
WINDS AND SEAS WED THROUGH SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO FCST E/NE
10-20KT THURSDAY...THEN E/SE FRI AND SAT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5
FEET NORTH...THU INTO FRI WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING LOW...THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...CQD/BM
AVIATION...JAC/JME/CQD/BM
MARINE...JAC/CCG/JME/JBM/CQD/BM


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