Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 050752
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFFSHORE FROM
FLORIDAS EAST COAST AND PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SEAS/SURF WITH AN ELEVATED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

...MINOR BEACH EROSION ALSO POSSIBLE DURING SEVERAL HIGH TIDE
CYCLES...

TODAY/TONIGHT...BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION AND DEVELOPING
WAVE/WEAK LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS PUSHING ONSHORE AND INLAND.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FL WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MORE DISTURBED FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
TO FORM AS WELL SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO AREA INTO THE AFT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE AREA BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING FOR HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ALONG
THE COAST TO LOW/MID 80S INLAND.

LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH WEAK LOW
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FL EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD THE NRN
BAHAMAS. GFS/ECMWF KEEP BULK OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
BUT STILL MAY SEE SCT ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST FROM
CAPE SOUTHWARD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AROUND 70 WHERE ONSHORE FLOW CAN
PERSIST.

WED...00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE MID
LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WED AND
INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN LAST NIGHT AT
THIS TIME. LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NAM APPEARING TOO FAST WITH NWD MOTION AND DEEP WITH SFC LOW ON
WED. WINDS WILL BE NE AT 10-15 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HAVE TAPERED RAIN CHANCES FROM 20 PCT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY TO 40 PCT ACROSS SRN SECTIONS WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTH OF A DAYTONA BEACH TO CLERMONT LINE. NE
WINDS AND A MODERATE SWELL WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS. HIGHS LWR-MID 80S COAST AND MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

WED NIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD 30 DEGS NORTH WELL OFFSHORE
WITH NE FLOW AND SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP LOW SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST AND ACROSS SRN SECTIONS MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

THU...GFS DRIFT LOW SLOWLY NORTH OF 30 NORTH WELL OFFSHORE FROM GA.
SFC FLOW SHOULD BE FROM THE NE-NNE WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS FAR SRN AREAS WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FL WILL HAVE POPS FROM 15-20 PCT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NE FLOW WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC. HIGHS LWR-MID 80S COAST AND
UPPER 80S INTERIOR.

FRI-SUN...00Z GFS RETROGRADES THE SFC LOW TWD THE GA COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECM SLOWLY RETROGRADES THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FROM
SC. IN BOTH SCENARIOS...E CENTRAL FL STAYS ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SW
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. GFS PROGS SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NRN CSTL
SECTIONS FRIDAY POSSIBLY WITH SOME SHOWERS. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN
THE 10-20 PCT RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES AT
TIMES BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. HIGHS WARM TO THE MID 80S COASTAL
COUNTIES AND UPPER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR. A NE-N SWELL WILL KEEP THE
RISK FOR RIP CURRENT ELEVATED AT THE BEACHES.

MON-TUE...00Z GFS ALLOWS THE MID LVL TROUGH TO FILL AND THE SFC LOW
TO WEAKEN ACROSS S GA WHILE THE ECM MOVES IT AWAY FROM THE AREA TO
THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MID 80S
COAST AND UPPER 80S INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN INTO THE AFT WITH EASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 15-18 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20-24 KTS. SCT ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS SOUTH OF KMCO WILL PRODUCE TEMPO
IFR/MVFR CONDS. GFS HINTING AT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD PREDOMINANT VFR CONDS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS MAINTAINING SEAS UP
TO 6 TO 7 FEET. NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES NEEDED AS FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH SCA CONDS OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE
TREASURE COAST.

WED-THU...NE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WED INTO THU WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
TO 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC. AS SFC LOW RETROGRADES OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRI INTO SATURDAY KEEPING HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE TO
5-6 FT ACROSS THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS. A SWELL WILL STILL PRODUCE
SEAS TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE LOW TRACK NOW
FCST FARTHER OFFSHORE EXPECTING SCEC CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEEK INTO
THE EARLY WEEKEND OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY NORTHERLY
FRIDAY ELEVATING SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM ESPEC NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  66  82  67 /  30  20  30  20
MCO  83  67  86  67 /  30  20  30  10
MLB  80  70  83  70 /  50  30  40  20
VRB  81  69  83  67 /  50  40  40  20
LEE  85  66  85  68 /  20  10  20  10
SFB  83  66  85  67 /  30  20  30  10
ORL  83  68  86  68 /  30  20  30  10
FPR  81  69  83  67 /  50  40  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER


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