Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 020416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN WARM ADVECTION AND
WITH LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM
W-E THROUGH THE DAY. PROGGED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AND ONLY A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS FORECAST. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. WITH A FASTER ONSET OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GENERATES SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED THOUGH AS LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ABOVE SHALLOW INVERSION AFTER DAYBREAK.  THAT
PROBLEM IS LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL MIXING INCREASES THE SURFACE WIND
LATER IN THE DAY.

BY TONIGHT...CONDITION DEGRADATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND PROBABLY
EVENTUAL IFR...CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
THE ENCROACHING FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAIN MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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