Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 200108
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
208 PM SST SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL ENTER THE FCST ZONES DURING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AN EXISTING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED UP TO 120 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THUS ALLOWING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BRUSH ACROSS MANUA DURING MONDAY. AS THIS
LEADING TROUGH AXIS BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH...CLOUD
REMNANTS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL ASCEND TOWARD
APIA EASTWARD DURING TUESDAY. AS THIS LATTER TROUGH AXIS FORCES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL DAMPEN THE AREA. VARIABLE WINDS UP
TO 10 KT WILL TURN NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RETURNING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER PHENOMENON
WILL CREATE A LOT OF WEATHER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION HENCE WILL
MONITOR THIS SITUATION BEFORE UPDATING THE WIND DIRECTION FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO LINGER NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL TAPER OFF
FROM THE SAMOAN ISLANDS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST ONLY MINIMAL SHOWER COVERAGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IS TRACKED TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND THUS RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANTICIPATE
LIGHT SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR
MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO
7 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER POSSIBLE
SOUTH SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING. A COMBINED
TRADE-WIND PHENOMENON AND A DEVELOPING LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF NIUE
WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURFS AND SWELLS THAT WILL ARRIVE DURING
THE MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
EXPECTED SWELL TRAIN.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI








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