Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 172159
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
759 AM CHST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. SEAS ARE RUNNING ONLY ABOUT 5 FEET AT THE IPAN
BUOY...BUT THAT BUOY WILL NOT PICK UP THE 2-FT NORTHWEST SWELL
THAT WILL BRING COMBINED SEAS UP CLOSE TO 6 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL HOLD THROUGH MON NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN IN THE MODELS STARTING AROUND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK TROUGH AND CIRCULATION FORM AND LINGER IN THE REGION. HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY ON FOR NOW...BUT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE FORECAST IS GOOD AS IS...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND
SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
IR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE OVER
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT
NEAR MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN. 12Z ASCAT SHOWS FRESH TRADES ALONG AND
NORTH OF 9N...AND GENTLE WINDS SOUTH OF 9N. A WEAK CIRCULATION
REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF MAJURO. SPOTTY CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR AND
WEST OF THE CIRCULATION AND ALONG THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH JUST
SOUTH OF KOSRAE...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AT KOSRAE...CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ADDED AT MAJURO FOR TODAY. MODELS STILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION AND TROUGH SHIFT WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND AT KOSRAE...AND MAYBE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AT POHNPEI. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT
MAJURO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
PLEASANT WEATHER PERSISTS AT CHUUK AND YAP THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AT PALAU HAVE NEARLY ENDED THERE...MOVING
TOWARDS THE WEST AND DISSIPATING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN
MICRONESIA WILL COME CLOSER TO CHUUK THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CLOSELY IN CASE THIS DISTURBANCE GENERATES ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SIMILARLY AT YAP AND PALAU...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AT
PALAU THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT BY NOON. THE DISTURBANCE IN
EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL SLOWLY HEAD WEST AND COULD BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT



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