Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPR LOW IS CENTERED OVR SERN CO THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OR SE ACRS ERN CO TODAY...THEN MOVING INTO SW KS
TONIGHT. PCPN WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW THIS MORNING WL MAINLY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE SW MTNS...WITH SOME
SHOWERS ALSO OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN MTNS AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS
OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS EARLY.  THEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW CENTER IN EAST CENTRAL CO OR THE
SERN CORNER OF THE STATE...ALL THE MTNS AREAS SHOULD SEE GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE HYR MTNS AREAS SEEING SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.  OVR THE SERN PLAINS...MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR TSTMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WX LOOK TO BE N AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS IN THE EVENING HOURS...THEN DECREASING LATE.
THEN LATE TONIGHT A FRONT MOVES INTO THE PALMER DVD AREA...BRINGING
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE UPR LOW.  THE FORECAST
MODELS ALSO BRING PCPN CHANCES INTO THE ERN MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...PIKES PEAK AND TELLER
COUNTY MAY SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW...WITH RAIN OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW BY 12Z SAT AND BRING PCPN FARTHER
SOUTH OVR THE SERN PLAINS THAN THE NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AS OLD UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEAKENS AND MERGES WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
OLD LOW...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING NORTHERN SYSTEM SPREADING ANOTHER BAND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. PASSING FRONT ALSO ALLOWS FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES PROGGED WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AS OLD UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEAKENS AND MERGES WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
OLD LOW...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING NORTHERN SYSTEM SPREADING ANOTHER BAND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. PASSING FRONT ALSO ALLOWS FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES PROGGED WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST
OF DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TO AT AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST
OF DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TO AT AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF
SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. WRAPAROUND AROUND THE LOW WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS INTO THIS EVE. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES EAST...STRON N-NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL MOVEINTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060-061.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE


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