Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 040242
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
942 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH MOST SITE/S ELEMENTS
IN TOLERANCE AND THEN SOME. THERE MIGHT BE A TEMPTATION TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS RUSTON WITH A MID FIFTY DEW
POINT WHILE JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN MONROE IS IN THE LOW 60S AND
BOTH ARE ZONE GROUPED FOR AROUND 60 FOR A LOW WITH MID TO UPPER
60S LAST HOUR. SO OVERALL...PERSISTENCE PLUS A LITTLE ADDED
MOISTURE WILL BOOST US JUST ABOVE THE AVERAGE OF 59 FOR MAY 3RD.
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO ANY TEXT PRODUCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST 05/00Z FOR KTXK...KELD...KTYR...KGGG...
KLFK...KSHV...AND KMLU. REMAINING CUMULUS WILL BE DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25 KFT. COULD SEE HAZE
EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT WILL OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. BY MID DAY CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5 KFT. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 6-12 KNOTS AFTER 04/14Z
THROUGH 05/00Z. BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY THE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL AND RIDGING ALOFT PROVIDING
FOR CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH DIURNAL
TRENDS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH RETURN OF DAYTIME CU/CIRRUS.
INCREASING DEEP S/SW FLOW WILL DRAW ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWRD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR BOTH
MORNING LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS...GENERALLY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH ACCOUNTS.

THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO DEFLECT THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION NW OF THE REGION BUT DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OUR REGION
OVER NE TX...SE OK AND ADJACENT SW AR WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE A BIT WEAKER. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN
OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST. SO OVERALL...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE HOURS OF PEAK HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WITH GENERALLY LOW QPF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  84  64  83 /   0  10  10  20
MLU  60  83  62  84 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  58  82  61  81 /   0  10  10  20
TXK  60  83  63  81 /   0  10  10  20
ELD  60  83  61  83 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  60  83  63  80 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  60  83  63  81 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  60  84  65  81 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06/19



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.