Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 251903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAKLY INDUCED TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SHIFTING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPORT
STRONG CAP INVERSION AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS/LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION...UNDER THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FAIRLY DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ABNORMALLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
IN SOME AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE PRESENT
AND EXPECTED DRY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY REACH PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOLLOWED
BY LIMITED SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SLOPED OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE....SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  92  80  93 /   0  10   0  20
STT  78  86  79  86 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/09


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