Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 250030
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
A DRIER SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT WHICH
IS NOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING
HELPED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST AS FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL SUPPORT MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME INTERVALS OF HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING INTO
THE REGION WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE DRIER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXCEPT LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO
EVENING UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 7 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER 03Z...BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY WIND FLOW WITH WINDS APPROACHING CAUTIONARY
LEVELS AT TIMES. THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
SO WILL KEEP THE COASTAL HAZARD STATEMENT IN PLACE AND ALL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
PLANNING TO VISIT THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF
THE BEACH PATROL. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
     SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING


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