Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...AND A FEW TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. HAVE UPDATED
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO REMOVE THE EARLIER MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF TONIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. BASED ON THE 25/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...APPEARS THE
TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL THRU
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS
SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SURFACE WIND AROUND 16Z-19Z SATURDAY
WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BRIEF DRY PERIOD SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONG AND COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE AND WILL BRING A VERY GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50"-1" UP IN THE WHITES. SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000-8000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY SINCE
THE GROUND IS RATHER WARM WITH MUCH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFALL MELTING.
CURRENTLY HAVE 2"-4" ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE WHITES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS 8-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

SYSTEM EXISTS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
AROUND MOST OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A RAPID WARMUP MONDAY WITH
WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WHITES EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THIS AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS


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