Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 251231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Apr 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low this period.  Multiple C1 flares were observed
throughout the period.  Region 2331 (S10W40, Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited
development in its trailer spot area while the remaining four active
regions on the visible disk were generally stable.

Two disappearing filaments were observed in GONG H-Alpha imagery this
period.  The first, a 21 degree long filament centered near S22E19,
disappeared between 25/0209-0359 UTC.  The second, a 12 degree long
filament centered near S20W32, disappeared between 25/0359-0557 UTC.
Both disappearing filaments were non-eruptive and appeared to have been
reabsorbed.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed this period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flares over the next three days (25-27 Apr).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels and
reached a peak flux value of 1,180 pfu at 24/1830 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced this period but remained below
the S1 (Minor) event threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days
(25-27 Apr).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to remain
enhanced over the next two days (25-26 Apr) but is expected to remain
below the S1 (Minor) event threshold.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period.  Solar wind
velocity decreased from initial values near 385 km/s to end-of-period
values near 350 km/s.  IMF total field strength values were steady near
4 nT and Bz remained mostly positive throughout the period.  The phi
angle was steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind velocity is expected to remain near background levels over
the next three days (25-27 Apr). A solar sector boundary change
(positive to negative) is expected on day one (25 Apr) with extended
periods of southward Bz possible.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal
solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (25 Apr) due an anticipated solar sector boundary change (positive
to negative).  Quiet to unsettled field conditions at expected on days
twp and three (26-27 Apr).



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