Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 011958
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
356 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RISK
FOR THE RIVERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THOUGH
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HINTS AT CONTINUED WET
WEATHER THROUGH APRIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL DECREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
AVERAGE DECREASE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES INCREASE ESPECIALLY AS
VEGETATION BEGINS TO FLOURISH.  OVERALL...THE RELATIVE RISK IS NEAR
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE COASTAL AREA FOR RIVER
FLOODING BUT THE OVERALL RISK WILL DECREASE AS STATED ABOVE.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 31ST ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL WITHIN THE SANTEE
RIVER AND PEEDEE RIVER WATERSHED.  REMAINING BASINS ARE RUNNING NEAR
NORMAL.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE REGIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...NO HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK AT THIS TIME.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN.  THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID
APRIL.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON THE CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...THE BEST CHANCES ARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUMMER.  THIS IS BASED ON CPC CLIMATE
MODEL FORECASTS AND THE CURRENT EL NINO ADVISORY.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

DOBUR



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