Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 011642
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

VALID 011700Z - 021200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN
MT...WRN/CNTRL SD...SWRN ND...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/NE NM...TX/OK
PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN MN/NWRN IA...

12Z RAOBS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN CONUS/HIGH PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY
DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS ESTABLISHED ACROSS AN EXPANSIVE REGION. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PROGRESSES EWD TOWARDS THE
NRN PLAINS...ATTENDANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM THE DAKOTAS
TOWARDS NRN MN. EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH...A TROUGH AND SECONDARY AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...DEEP DIURNAL MIXING PRESENT
OVER THE SWRN CONUS WILL ENCOURAGE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SFC...CREATING BREEZY W/SWLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF AZ/NM. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CAPTURES THESE CHARACTERISTICS WELL. AS SUCH...NO MAJOR
ALTERATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ELEVATED/CRITICAL DELINEATIONS.

...PORTIONS OF WRN KS/SRN NE...
INTRODUCED AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDER DELINEATION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. MORNING RAOBS AND FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATE PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.5-0.6 INCHES AROUND THIS
AREA. IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE STORM MOTIONS AND LOW SFC RH
VALUES...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF
THIS DELINEATION AS A FEW CELLS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT. WHILE THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POCKETS OF
WETTING RAINS...INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH THE PRESENCE OF SOME
MID-LEVEL BUOYANCY SUGGEST GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS WOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE FIRE SPREAD THREAT.

...TX/OK PANHANDLES...
REMOVED MORE OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND SOME OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AS A
SECONDARY AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS/DEVELOPMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH LEADS TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FAR SWRN KS AND
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED HERE. NONETHELESS...DRY FUELS AND
LOW RH VALUES WILL STILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONS.

...PORTIONS OF MID MO VALLEY/NRN IA/SRN MN...
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ELEVATED DELINEATION. 12Z
RAOBS FROM TOP/OAX INDICATE THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY. WITH
THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING...RH VALUES ARE RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME HI-RES FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WITH RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IA/SRN MN. INDEED...THIS DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED OBS. AS
SUCH...A CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF
SWRN MN/NWRN IA.

..PICCA.. 04/01/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0354 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE NRN
ROCKIES/SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. NRN ROCKIES/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MANITOBA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/NWRN
ONTARIO WHILE DEEPENING. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY. WLY
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES NEWD
INTO THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS CNTRL CA AND INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT
COMBINATION OF TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND
LEE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CREATE A LARGE AREA OF LOW SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN PLAINS...
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEEP NRN PLAINS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
EWD. THIS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS
AROUND 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER ERN MT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS
AND A GRADUALLY DRYING AIRMASS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT FROM S-CTRNL/SE MT SEWD INTO CNTRL SD WITH RH
VALUES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THESE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS WHERE RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE LIKELY
-- I.E. S-CNTRL/SE MT...SW/S-CNTRL SD AND WRN/CNTRL SD.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID MO VALLEY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA BY 00Z.
STRONG SLY WINDS -- I.E. SUSTAINED AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 35
MPH -- ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
MIXING DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SW/S-CNTRL MN
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GUIDANCE OVER THE AREA VARIES GREATLY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE RAP IS DRIEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S /RESULTANT RH VALUES FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER TEENS/
WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
/RESULTANT RH VALUES IN THE 40S/. RAP DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ACCOUNTING FOR THE EXPECTED MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MORE MOIST
FORECAST CURRENTLY FAVORED -- I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND RH
VALUES FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A PORTION OF
THIS AREA IN AN ELEVATED DELINEATION GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND AT
LEAST MODESTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z.

...SOUTHWEST...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...
INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WLY/SWLY WINDS FROM
15 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT...A LARGE AREA OF
AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOUR CORNERS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THIS
AREA AS RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AMIDST THESE STRONG WINDS.
THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE NM AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE WHERE SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL WITH 20 MPH WINDS
ANTICIPATED AMIDST THE DRY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA AND
WRN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FLOW
ALOFT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUNDOWNER
WINDS EARLY WED MORNING AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY DRY FUELS AND POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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