Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FNUS71 KALY 042108
FWSALY

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOR ROOSA GAP...NYS RANGERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1659 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION... A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM FOR EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME.

RH VALUES HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE
TEENS IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS HAVE JUST FALLEN SHORT OF
PERSISTENT 25 MPH...THOUGH THEY COULD STILL REACH THESE VALUES UNTIL
AFTER 600 PM.

AFTER THAT TIME...THE WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WILL BREEZE COULD PERSIST 5-10 MPH WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW
APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH
SOME LOCALITIES NOT PICKING UP ANY RAIN AND MANY AREAS RECEIVING
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...OVERNIGHT...BEST CHANCES SHIFT TO IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...THEN BY DAYBREAK...BEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS COMES TUESDAY...AS WELL
CLOUDS. RH TO LOOKS TO VARY QUITE A BIT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...GETTING TO DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...BUT HOLDING IN THE 30S AND EVEN 40S FURTHER
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY TOWARD I-84.

THE WIND ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIGHT...BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MOST
AREAS...5 TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF 25
MPH. FURTHER SOUTH...THE WIND WILL VARIABLE 5-10 MPH BECOME
NORTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
PARTIAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT AS RH VALUES SHOULD BRIEFLY RAMP UP TO
BETWEEN 75-90 PERCENT AND THE WIND LIGHT ALLOWING A LITTLE DEW TO
FORM. EACH AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR
LOWER.

THE WIND EACH AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE NORTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 15
MPH...WITH ANY GUSTS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH.

THE HAINES INDEX LOOKS VERY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

NO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THAT THIS TIME.


SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 21 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 12 TO 21 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER...IRL
REQUESTED BY...PETE LIEBG
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150504.ROOSA.01/ALY


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