Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FNUS71 KBTV 041417
FWSBTV

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROBERT FROST...GREEN MOUNTAIN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE DRYING OUT FUELS...AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRES WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS WETTING SOILS WITH EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY
STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7400-8900 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 25
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............7      26     42
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75     77     75
RH..................31     29     31
20 FT WIND..........SW 12  SW 14  SW 14
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     20     25
MIX HGT (FT)........7900   8900   8800
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 17  SW 20  SW 24
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10     10     10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS
                    LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 3800 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 600-2000 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING...INCREASING TO
                    1500-2700 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH...BECOMING WEST 12 TO 20
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............47     59     85     94     91     90
WEATHER COV.........       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74     69     63     60     57     55
RH..................32     40     54     64     77     83
20 FT WIND..........SW 12  SW 10  SW 9   SW 9   SW 8   W 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     15     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........6200   1300   800    1300   2700   1900
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 22  SW 13  W 12   W 15   W 20   W 14
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10     20     30     40     50     40

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............88     84     74     42     27     23
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................53     53     59     63     65     69
RH..................86     86     60     46     37     32
20 FT WIND..........NW 8   N 9    N 9    N 9    NW 9   NW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     20     25     20
CHC OF PCPN (%).....30     10     10     10     0      0

$$
FORECASTER...LOCONTO
REQUESTED BY...JEN EDMONDS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.ROBER.01/BTV


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