Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 192045
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR GLEN HAZEL...DCNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1645 EDT ON APRIL 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.

MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1300-1500 FT
                    AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 22 TO 31 MPH...INCREASING TO 30 TO 35
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO 18 TO
                    24 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............75  97  97  97  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.........        CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE........        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................65  63  61  60  58  57  55  54  53  52  51  50  49  49
RH..................26  28  31  34  38  41  44  48  51  55  59  63  68  72
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......14  15  15  15  15  16  18  20  21  20  20  18  17  15
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  20  25  25  25  25  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.5 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....22  24  26  29  30  30  29  29  31  35  35  30  24  18
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND A
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH...DECREASING TO 20 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1700...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300-5900 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 22 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 26
                    TO 35 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............100 100 94  94  94  92  92  92  92  92  92  100
WEATHER COV.........DEF DEF NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT DEF
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                            CHC
TEMP................48  47  49  51  53  56  57  59  61  66  66  61
RH..................78  83  77  74  71  68  66  63  60  51  51  61
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......14  12  10  10  9   8   8   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....30  30  30  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.3 4.4 5.3 5.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....17  17  17  16  14  14  15  18  22  26  31  35
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   4   5
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...LA CORTE
REQUESTED BY...CODY BALL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150419.GLENH.01/CTP


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