Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FNUS73 KOAX 011017
FWSOAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG ELK PILE BURNS...BIA, WINNEBAGO AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
517 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CDT ON APRIL 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD
BE KICKING UP INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT IGNITION...WITH AN
INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES BY 5 OR 6 PM. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AT IGNITION
WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 40
PERCENT EARLY IN THE BURN LOWERING TO 30 PERCENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 1500FT AT IGNITION WILL SLOWLY RISE TO ABOVE
4000FT IN THE AFTERNOON.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 83.
RH..................41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 24 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WINDY. SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO
                    24 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 4000-5000
                    FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 26 TO 32 MPH INCREASING TO 37 TO 46 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 44 TO
                    48 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO AROUND 38
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........39     45     56     70     87     93
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  CHANCE DEFNTE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........              S CHC  CHANCE DEFNTE LIKELY
TEMP............65     75     82     83     77     68
RH..............41     37     35     37     44     56
20 FT WIND......S 23   S 24   S 29   S 30   S 24   W 16
20 FT WIND GUST.30     35     40     40     35     25
HAINES INDEX....3      4      5      5      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45.
RH..................MAX 68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 31 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.
RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4300 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    4300-6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
                    2100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DERGAN
REQUESTED BY...DUWAYNE TRAVERSIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150401.BIGEL.01/OAX


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