Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241558
1057 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

                   VALID APRIL 24 THROUGH APRIL 29


                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Heavy rains still continue to impact portions of the WGRFC area
this morning. An area of showers and thunderstorms is currently
moving over portions of southeast Texas...mainly affecting the
lower Trinity and Neches River systems. Rainfall amounts are
averaging 1 to 2 inches per hour, and this trend should continue
through noon. Another area of showers and thunderstorms stretches
from West Texas towards the Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts associated
with this activity are averaging less than 1 inch per hour. Over
the past several hours, some minor rises occurred across the
San Antonio River system, however no significant river flooding
has been reported.

Overall, our region continues to be under a southwesterly upper
air flow which will keep our weather unsettled through tomorrow
morning, as an upper level low approaches from the west. Ahead of
this low, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and east of the dry line. During the afternoon and evening hours,
heavy rainfall with the possibility of severe weather is expected
over a good part of Texas and Louisiana through tomorrow. Some
additional minor rises are expected across some river basins
across southeast Texas. However, widespread moderate or major
flooding is not expected.

By late tonight the low pressure system will move over Kansas,
with dry air moving into Texas from the west. This will cause
the rainfall to diminish late tonight and tomorrow over most of
the area except for Texas Gulf coastal region. Thereafter, a
weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather for most of
the region for tomorrow and Sunday morning.

By Sunday a new low pressure system is forecast to develop and
move toward the four corners region.  This will bring mixed
precipitation over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado
Sunday and Monday. And over Texas there will be another chance
for showers and thunderstorms later Sunday, but will be more
likely over east Texas and Louisiana on Monday.

By Monday night another low pressure system is forecast to move
over Oklahoma. Some wrap-around rainfall is possible across
northern Texas late Monday into Tuesday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.50 inch are forecast for areas from Laredo to
Texarkana. Mainly east of I-35.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for Central Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for
New Mexico and Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 to 2.00
inches are forecast for portions of North Texas...including areas
along the Red River. Lesser amounts are forecast for areas
stretching from the Texas Panhandle down to the upper Texas coast.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (35%), and about 9% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little
over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(58%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas are at or
near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation
events have brought drought relief to parts of far west Texas, south
Texas and roughly the southeast third of the state. The rainfall
expected over the next five days over the WGRFC area could produce
some runoff over east central and northeast Texas where the heaviest
rainfall is forecast. No significant runoff is expected over the
remainder of the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Releases from Lake Limestone should cause the Navasota River at
Easterly and Normangee to rise above flood stage.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding is occurring in the Brazos, Guadalupe, Neches,
Sabine, Trinity, and San Bernard River basins. Additional rainfall
is expected across WGRFC however no significant flooding is forecast
in the next 5 days.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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